Huge alternative space
Lithium ion battery is superior to lead-acid battery in many technical indexes, and has huge replacement space and electrochemical energy storage increment. By the end of 2019, the lead-acid battery ranked second accounted for 17.8% of the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China, and the total proportion with lithium-ion battery was 98.4%, which is the main technical route of electrochemical energy storage.
In 2019, the output of lead-acid battery will be 202.5gwh. With the reduction of lithium battery cost, lithium battery will be better than lead-acid battery in the future. If all batteries are replaced, according to the conservative unit price of 0.5 yuan / wh, the replacement market space will reach 100 billion. The reduction of the cost of superimposed lithium battery will bring great economy to the energy storage project. In the long run, lithium batteries and energy storage are expected to develop reasonably and open up huge market space.
The downstream multi-point lithium battery energy storage outlet has arrived
In terms of market scale, the energy storage scale of lithium battery will maintain rapid growth. By the end of 2019, the cumulative operation scale of lithium battery energy storage in China will reach 1.71gw, which will continue to grow at a rate of more than 50% per year in 2020. The application of energy storage will be popularized in various fields in 2021, and the continuous decline of battery cost will also promote the large-scale application of lithium battery energy storage system. According to our calculation, the total installed capacity demand of lithium battery energy storage will reach 28.41 GW in 2024. We predict that the main growth points of electrochemical energy storage devices in the future will come from: (1) with the further promotion of power system reform, the installed capacity is expected to continue to maintain the rapid growth in the past two years. It is estimated that by the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of frequency modulated lithium energy storage at the power grid side will reach 5.36gw/2.68gwh, and the lithium energy storage at the peak shaving side will reach 2.21gw/4.42gwh, totaling 7.57 GW / 7.1 GWH（ 2) The cost of new energy power generation will be further reduced, and its penetration rate in the power system will continue to increase. It is estimated that the cumulative installed capacity of lithium energy storage will reach 9.23 GW / 27.69 GWH in 2024（ 3) China will enter the peak period of 5g construction in 2020. It is expected that the installed capacity of lithium energy storage will reach 12.48gw/43.68gwh in 2025.
